{
"frozen_test_set": "disputes first raised 2026-08-01 to 2026-09-30 on Polymarket v1 UMA CTF adapter markets, settled by 2026-10-02",
"n": 754,
"settled_differently": 306,
"base_rate": 0.4058,
"metrics_estimate_v1": {
"test_window": "disputes first raised 2026-08-01 to 2026-09-30",
"train_window": "2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30",
"calibration_window": "2026-07",
"n_train": 1478,
"n_calibration": 281,
"n_test": 754,
"test_positives": 306,
"test_base_rate": 0.4058,
"auc": [
0.674,
0.6375,
0.7089
],
"pr_auc": [
0.5679,
0.5157,
0.6172
],
"brier": 0.2264,
"brier_base_rate": 0.2507,
"precision_at_50": 0.76,
"precision_at_100": 0.67,
"precision_at_250": 0.532,
"test_price_coverage": 0.973,
"calibration_test": [
{
"bin": "(-0.001, 0.2]",
"n": 228,
"predicted": 0.129,
"observed": 0.189
},
{
"bin": "(0.3, 0.4]",
"n": 11,
"predicted": 0.4,
"observed": 0.182
},
{
"bin": "(0.4, 0.5]",
"n": 4,
"predicted": 0.454,
"observed": 0.25
},
{
"bin": "(0.5, 0.6]",
"n": 181,
"predicted": 0.56,
"observed": 0.475
},
{
"bin": "(0.6, 0.7]",
"n": 262,
"predicted": 0.647,
"observed": 0.462
},
{
"bin": "(0.7, 0.8]",
"n": 50,
"predicted": 0.791,
"observed": 0.7
},
{
"bin": "(0.8, 1.0]",
"n": 18,
"predicted": 0.98,
"observed": 1.0
}
]
},
"label_definition": "settled_differently = on-chain resolution price != last disputed proposal price (Predge on-chain scan, 1 Jan to 2 Oct 2026)",
"score_definition": "estimate_v1 = settlement-estimate-v1 calibrated probability as shipped in the API; gbm_reference = gradient-boosted comparison model from the feasibility study (not shipped)",
"monthly_drift": [
{
"month": "2026-01",
"settled_differently_share": 0.3018,
"settled_disputed_markets": 275
},
{
"month": "2026-02",
"settled_differently_share": 0.3173,
"settled_disputed_markets": 208
},
{
"month": "2026-03",
"settled_differently_share": 0.2078,
"settled_disputed_markets": 308
},
{
"month": "2026-04",
"settled_differently_share": 0.3522,
"settled_disputed_markets": 230
},
{
"month": "2026-05",
"settled_differently_share": 0.249,
"settled_disputed_markets": 253
},
{
"month": "2026-06",
"settled_differently_share": 0.2647,
"settled_disputed_markets": 204
},
{
"month": "2026-07",
"settled_differently_share": 0.4662,
"settled_disputed_markets": 281
},
{
"month": "2026-08",
"settled_differently_share": 0.3892,
"settled_disputed_markets": 316
},
{
"month": "2026-09",
"settled_differently_share": 0.4178,
"settled_disputed_markets": 438
},
{
"month": "2026-10",
"settled_differently_share": 0.2105,
"settled_disputed_markets": 19
}
],
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
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},
{
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{
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{
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