Dispute of the week · #1 · 19 October 2026

The Tesla Roadster 0-60 market

Resolved: Yes
Disputed twice, sent to UMA vote round 10372, resolved on Polygon 20 Oct 00:30:38 UTC. Signed record · verify it

Predge, 19 October 2026, updated 20 October 2026 with the vote result. Data read on 18 October 2026, 20:00 to 20:20 UTC, and on 20 October 2026, 13:00 to 13:20 UTC. All times UTC.

Market: "Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?" (Polymarket market 5710779, condition id 0xd4634d90…54bf01). The rules say Yes needs a live, timed 0-60 mph run at Tesla's 15 October event (8:55 PM ET, which is 00:55 UTC on 16 October) under 1.0 seconds, and the time must be "demonstrated, not merely claimed". An official Tesla-published time for that specific run counts as a qualifying demonstration.

Status on 20 October: resolved Yes on Polygon at 00:30:38 UTC on 20 October. The proposal was disputed twice, the outcome went to UMA vote round 10372, and the vote returned Yes, the same answer as both disputed proposals.

Timeline

Time (UTC)What happened on chainSource
14 Oct 22:46:39Market's question initialized on Polymarket's UMA CTF adapter. Reward 3.5 USDC.ePolygon tx 0xfe890ddb…2d9b
16 Oct 01:24:37Proposal: Yes0x80583688…993b
16 Oct 02:09:52First dispute of Yes. The question is reset and asks for a new proposal in the same tx0xc00e80af…e954
16 Oct 02:10:30Proposal: Yes again, from the same proposer address0x839c5982…d39a
16 Oct 03:48:43Second dispute of Yes, from a different disputer address. The outcome now goes to a UMA vote0x4a130b0d…8e9a
16 Oct 02:45:47First disputed request (proposal of 01:24:37) added to UMA's VotingV2 on Ethereum, round 10372. Its vote settles the bonds of the first proposal and dispute; the adapter does not use it for the outcomeEthereum tx 0xc686f842…d265
16 Oct 04:20:35Second disputed request (proposal of 02:10:30) added to VotingV2, round 10372. This vote decides the marketEthereum tx 0x4ffaacd9…79c5
16 Oct 15:07:52Bulletin board, question creator: aware of the dispute; any clarification will be posted at 12:30 PM ET (16:30 UTC), with the order book cleared then0xc4bc176f…3477
16 Oct 16:30:03Bulletin board, question creator: quotes the rule on official Tesla-published times and states that Tesla's published time for the live run is 0.81 seconds0x9f3092e0…2056
20 Oct 00:00:00Vote round 10372 ends (getRoundEndTime(10372) on VotingV2)eth_call
20 Oct 00:00:23Both requests resolved on VotingV2 with price 1e18, which is Yes under the market's ancillary data (p2 = Yes)Ethereum tx 0x1da0ef7c…eeca, block 26,230,068
20 Oct 00:30:38QuestionResolved on Polymarket's UMA CTF adapter, settled price 1e18 (Yes). The market's condition on Polymarket's ConditionalTokens contract now reports YesPolygon tx 0x80544650…1861, block 95,833,923

Size

The Yes price, from 10-minute CLOB samples: 0.25 at 00:50, 0.945 at 01:20, 0.985 at 02:10, 0.9625 to 0.976 between 02:20 and 03:40, 0.9145 at 04:10 after the second dispute, 0.985 at 15:00, 0.9955 at 16:00 and 0.9995 at 17:00. The 16:30 sample reads 0.5 while the order book was cleared and is left out.

What settlement logic should assume

None of this is a view on Yes or No.

  1. Treat a price near 0.97 as a price, not a resolution. Each proposal had a 2-hour challenge window (proposal time to expirationTime in the ProposePrice events). The first was disputed 45 minutes in. The second would have settled at 04:10:30 and was disputed at 03:48:43, 22 minutes before that. Until a proposal survives its window, nothing has settled.
  2. After the second dispute, plan for days. A repeat dispute sends the outcome to a UMA vote. Across Polymarket disputes from 1 January to 2 October 2026, the median from a second dispute to on-chain resolution was 88.5 hours. Here the vote round ends 20 October 00:00 UTC, about 92 hours after the second dispute; resolution on Polygon can only follow after that, once the result is bridged back. If the vote does not reach quorum or agreement, the request rolls to the next round. What happened: the vote resolved 23 seconds after the round ended and the market resolved on Polygon 30 minutes later, 92.7 hours after the second dispute.
  3. Read the bulletin board, but do not treat it as the result. The 16:30 post comes from the question creator and the price moved to 0.9995 after it. The UMA vote decides the outcome.
  4. Do not recycle the collateral early. An agent that marked 0.9995 as cash and spent it would be spending money that is still in a vote.

Context: from 1 January to 2 October 2026, 853 of 2,543 settled disputed Polymarket markets (33.5%) settled differently from the disputed proposal. That is a base rate across all markets, not a forecast for this one. A dispute does not by itself change an outcome; it sends the question to a new proposal or to a vote.

What the signed record returned on 18 and 20 October

GET https://api.predge.io/v1/settlement-risk/5710779 (free, no key). Read at Polygon block 95,766,207 (18 Oct 20:17:38 UTC), it returned:

Read again at Polygon block 95,864,560 (20 Oct 13:16:48 UTC), the same URL returned:

How to verify:

pip install cryptography
curl -sD headers.txt -o record.json https://api.predge.io/v1/settlement-risk/5710779
curl -sO https://data.predge.io/verify_record.py
python3 verify_record.py record.json --body-signature "$(grep -i '^x-predge-body-signature' headers.txt | cut -d' ' -f2- | tr -d '\r')"

Our 18 October snapshot record-5710779.json (body sha256 fda0adaa9c52e4c0b07c0bbb02dc307a7d7f2dd1cc3249a9ece95bb888683f1d, key id 13fa3d18a369e6c7) passed every check in verify_record.py (17 for this file), including the ed25519 signature over the record and over the whole HTTP body. Every chain read in the record is made at the block it names, so any archive Polygon RPC returns the same answers at block 95,766,207. The market lookup uses Polymarket's Gamma API and is checked on chain against the UMA question id. Our 20 October snapshot record-5710779-2026-10-20.json (body sha256 964b59f7fc166cae48f34ba1671beae9437046e48a2a76da43cf486670834786, same key) also passed all 17 checks. The live URL now returns the resolved record, so use the 18 October snapshot to check what the record said while the vote was open. Both snapshots, with their response headers, are at https://data.predge.io/dispute-of-the-week/2026-10-19/, and you can paste either one into https://data.predge.io/verify to check the signature in the browser.

Next week

The 98 markets on one football match (FK Polissia vs. FK Dynamo Kyiv, 18 October) that 12 addresses disputed between Polygon blocks 95,750,658 and 95,751,067, all first disputes.

Sources

Files

Not advice and not a view on any market. Predge reads public chain data and signs a verifiable record of what it read.