0x40fa…ab83 is no proven edge

Outcome-verified track record on resolved Polymarket markets — win rate, edge over the price it paid, and leaderboard rank. Free, signed by Predge.

Predge / wallet checker / 0x40fa…ab83
0x40fa3c1cb3a72e35bc001bd7f9f30d526580ab83
✗ No proven edge
On resolved markets, this wallet did not beat the prices it paid. Win rate alone can flatter a favourite-backer.
Win rate (resolved)
87.5% (≥64.0%)
Edge over price
-34.9pp
Conviction
-0.35
Leaderboard rank
#4538 of 7706
Resolved trades
16
Volume (30d)
$4.2k
✓ signed · ed25519 · key 13fa3d18a3… — this verdict is cryptographically attested by Predge and can be verified offline on the checker.
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How this is computed (no black box)

Win rate counts resolved markets only — a trade wins when its side matches the final on-chain resolution. Edge = Wilson-95%-lower-bound(win rate) − average entry price, so beating a coin-flip counts more than winning a near-certain bet, and small samples are damped. Conviction = edge × ln(1 + volume): skill first, then the capital behind it. The bar for a leaderboard rank is ≥10 resolved-eligible trades and ≥$1,000 of volume. Data is delayed 15 minutes; real-time stays on Predge Pro. Each result is signed with Predge's ed25519 key so you can verify it offline.

Building an agent or copy-bot? The full history, per-trade PnL curve and live signals for 0x40fa…ab83 are on the pay-per-call x402 API — GET /v1/wallets/0x40fa3c1cb3a72e35bc001bd7f9f30d526580ab83, USDC per call, no keys.